The race for the ICC World Test Championship 2025 final is at its peak as five teams are left in contention for a place in the final of the tournament. As only 20 test matches remain to be played before the majestic final, each match will bring one team closer to playing the final and take four others away from it.
As it stands, India, Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and Sri Lanka are the teams that have the hopes alive of making it to the finals. New Zealand and Australia have already won it once each, whereas the Indian team came out as runner-up in both the finals. Among these teams, the men in blue stand the best chance to reach their third consecutive WTC final and become the only team to do so.
The 2023-25 ICC World Test Championship has seen some exciting brands of cricket where teams have fought till the end for a win and started to put draws out of the equation. The WTC cycle started with Ashes, which ended in a dramatic 2-2 draw between England and Australia and will end with a two-test match series between Australia and Sri Lanka. The WTC final 2025 will be played at the Lords, London, starting June 11, 2025.
The battle is going to be more exciting as we inch closer to the final match. A lot of teams are scheduled to play test matches in the months of November and December, which will give us our finalists to an extent. Every ball, every run, every slow over penalty, and every rain break will be important from here for all the teams, as luck will also play a major role in deciding a team’s fortune in the WTC 2023-25 cycle.
It is difficult to predict vaguely which team will be playing that final, and hence, we will start by looking at the current points table, matches left for each of the teams, and possible scenarios for the five teams still in contention, and then decide and predict which two teams will be a part of the WTC 2025 final.
WTC 2023-25 – Points Table
The ICC World Test Championship 2023-25 points table is as below. India is currently in the top spot, followed by Australia with a narrow margin. The West Indies cricket team sits in the wooden spoon position in the WTC points table 2025.
| S. No. | Team | Points | Percentage |
| 1 | India | 98 | 62.82 |
| 2 | Australia | 90 | 62.50 |
| 3 | Sri Lanka | 60 | 55.56 |
| 4 | New Zealand | 60 | 50.00 |
| 5 | South Africa | 40 | 47.62 |
| 6 | England | 93 | 40.79 |
| 7 | Pakistan | 40 | 33.33 |
| 8 | Bangladesh | 33 | 30.56 |
| 9 | West Indies | 20 | 18.52 |
WTC 2023-25 – Remaining Matches
The remaining matches and the schedule for the ICC World Test Championship 2023-25 cycle are as follows: It also includes the India WTC schedule, who are the prime contenders to play the final and win the trophy.
| S. No. | Match | Date |
| 1 | Bangladesh vs South Africa | October 29, 2024 |
| 2 | India vs New Zealand | November 1, 2024 |
| 3 | Australia vs India | November 22, 2024 |
| 4 | Australia vs India | December 6, 2024 |
| 5 | Australia vs India | December 14, 2024 |
| 6 | Australia vs India | December 26, 2024 |
| 7 | Australia vs India | January 3, 2025 |
| 8 | West Indies vs Bangladesh | November 22, 2024 |
| 9 | West Indies vs Bangladesh | November 30, 2024 |
| 10 | South Africa vs Sri Lanka | November 27, 2024 |
| 11 | South Africa vs Sri Lanka | December 5, 2024 |
| 12 | New Zealand vs England | November 28, 2024 |
| 13 | New Zealand vs England | December 6, 2024 |
| 14 | New Zealand vs England | December 14, 2024 |
| 15 | South Africa vs Pakistan | December 26, 2024 |
| 16 | South Africa vs Pakistan | January 3, 2025 |
| 17 | Pakistan vs West Indies | January 16, 2025 |
| 18 | Pakistan vs West Indies | January 24, 2025 |
| 19 | Sri Lanka vs Australia | January 2025 |
| 20 | Sri Lanka vs Australia | February, 2025 |
WTC 2023-25 – Possible Scenarios
Let us have a look at the possible scenarios of the five teams that are still in contention for those two precious spots in the WTC 2025 final.
India
Despite still having a narrow advantage over Australia, two unexpected losses to New Zealand have made it harder for India to go to the World Test Championship (WTC) final for the third time in a row. India needs to defeat Australia 3-2 and win the last Test match against New Zealand in Mumbai to finish in the top two. If they escape penalties for slow over rates, they would be at 64.04% on the points table.
Talking about other teams, New Zealand may reach 57.14% if they lose in Mumbai and then defeat England 3-0, while Australia can reach 60.53% if they win 2-0 in Sri Lanka and then lose two games against India. The only team that could beat India would still be South Africa. With a 2-2 series loss in Australia, India would fall behind Australia with 60.53%, considering the kangaroos beat Sri Lanka in January.
India would need to win four Test matches and draw one in Australia to guarantee a spot, though, if they lose in Mumbai and New Zealand sweeps England 3-0 to reach 64.29%. If teams like Australia, South Africa, and New Zealand don’t make the most of their points in their remaining games, India might still finish in the top two.
Australia
Recent losses against New Zealand by India increased Australia’s chances of making it to the World Test Championship (WTC) final. Australia would finish with 62.28% of the potential points, which would put them ahead of India if they defeated India 3-2 and Sri Lanka 1-0. New Zealand has the opportunity to overtake Australia as well, but only if they win every game they have left, including a 3-0 whitewash of England, which would put them at 64.29%.
South Africa would be the only other team able to pass Australia in the WTC rankings if New Zealand struggles in any of their next games. However, Australia can guarantee their spot in the WTC final without relying on the outcomes of other teams. They must win five of their final seven games to secure their place. This would put them comfortably beyond the cutoff percentage required to finish in the top two, regardless of what happens with other teams.
One would say the ball is in Australia’s court as a home series against India where the Australians will be playing their best team on pitches that favor them, and two tests against Sri Lanka are not much of a threat to the Kangaroos.
Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka’s chances of making it to the World Test Championship (WTC) final have increased dramatically as a result of their recent triumph, which saw them earn a perfect 24 points from their last two Test matches. Sri Lanka is in a strong position to contend for qualifying with four games left against two countries who are also vying for a top-two finish. Regardless of the outcomes of the other teams, they will secure a spot in the final if they win all four of the next Test matches, adding 48 more points to their current 69.23%.
However, depending on other results, Sri Lanka would still finish with a respectable 61.54% and be in the running for a ticket if they win three of these games and lose one. They now have a real chance of finishing in the top two of the WTC rankings, even though their future is still partly dependent on winning consistently.
If the Lankans can keep on playing this exciting brand of cricket, show some more courage, and keep on punching above their weight, they might do something special and reach the final of the ICC World Test Championship.
New Zealand
New Zealand’s chances of making it to the World Test Championship (WTC) final appeared slim at the beginning of their series in India. But they are again back in the running after achieving two outstanding victories in the first two Test matches. New Zealand will have a points percentage of 64.29% if they win all four of their remaining Test matches, which would keep them in the running but not ensure a berth in the final.
However, if they lose one of those games, their percentage would fall to 57.14%, which would make qualifying much more difficult and force them to rely on other outcomes. Although their WTC campaign has been rejuvenated by their comeback, New Zealand will have a difficult time maintaining this momentum and finishing in the top two.
To maintain their prospects of qualifying, they will need to perform well in these last games and play an incredible brand of cricket to achieve the unthinkable. The inaugural winners of the WTC trophy will be doing everything possible to make that final in June 2025.
South Africa
If South Africa can make the most of their next five Test matches, they should have a good chance of making it to the World Test Championship (WTC) final. Only one of Australia or India could cross this threshold; therefore, winning all five would put them at a points percentage of 69.44%, which would very surely guarantee them a spot in the final.
South Africa would end with 63.89%, which is still a competitive percentage if they win four games and draw one. Their point percentage would only barely decrease to 61.11% even with four wins and one loss, which would keep them in the running if other outcomes go their way.
South Africa has a good schedule as well: they will play home series against Pakistan and Sri Lanka after finishing the current series against Bangladesh. Since every victory is essential to keeping their chances of finishing in the top two, playing at home can provide them the edge they need to meet their WTC ambitions and play their first ever final of the championship.
WTC 2023-25 – Predictions
As the teams fight for those two berths in the WTC 2025 final, excitement and thrill are guaranteed. None of the 20 test matches left from here on would be a dead rubber, as each of the matches will have some impact over other matches and positions of teams in the WTC 2023-25 points table.
As per the possible scenarios and current position of the teams, India and South Africa seem to be the top contenders for the two spots in the final. Australia also have a great chance of qualifying if they manage to take away the Border-Gavaskar trophy away from India, whereas if the Indian team can manage to retain the trophy, they will book their position in the final.
South Africa just needs to have a good home season against two Asian teams, and they will be on that flight to London in June. New Zealand have an outside chance, whereas for Sri Lanka to qualify, they will have to do something that their cricket team has not achieved ever in their history.
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